The Decline of U.S. Exports to China

The headlines say it all: China is no longer buying American. U.S. farm exports to China have cratered—corn, beef, chicken, cotton, all down by double digits. And this isn’t a blip. It’s the inevitable result of a trade relationship that broke years ago—and will never return to the way it was.

At TSS, we’ve been helping Western companies move their manufacturing from China to Thailand for years now. Our position has never wavered: the U.S.–China relationship, once deep and mutually dependent, is now irreversibly fractured. And this month’s agricultural trade data is just another symptom of that deeper reality.

The Myth of a “Reset”

Some businesses are still clinging to the idea that things might go back to “normal”—to pre-2018, pre-tariff trade flows. That’s wishful thinking.

Here’s the truth:

• China has structurally diversified its supply chain and import sources. It’s no longer reliant on U.S. goods.

• Retaliatory tariffs are here to stay, no matter who’s in the White House.

• National security and economic competition now drive trade policy on both sides.

Even if tariffs were lifted tomorrow, trust has been lost—and trust is what fuels global trade. Beijing doesn’t want to be vulnerable to future sanctions, and Washington doesn’t want to be dependent on a geopolitical rival.

What This Means for U.S. Businesses

Many U.S. companies—especially manufacturers—are still operating in China, thinking they can outlast the storm. But what they don’t realize is that the old supply chain logic no longer applies. Geopolitics has reshaped the landscape permanently. You need resilience, not just low cost.

At TSS, we’re seeing more and more clients wake up to this reality. They’re not just hedging—they’re exiting. They’re moving production to Thailand, where we offer Western-led sourcing teams, deep factory relationships, and a stable trade environment.

Prepare for the Future, Not the Past

The 2018 trade war wasn’t an event—it was a turning point. A divorce, not a disagreement.

Businesses hoping for reconciliation are risking everything on a fantasy. Those preparing for a new supply chain reality are the ones who will survive—and thrive.

If you're still wondering whether to make the move, don’t wait until it's too late. The future of global trade is regional, diversified, and increasingly informed by political considerations. TSS is here to help you build that future.