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Tariff Volatility and the China+1 Dilemma: What Thailand Can (and Can’t) Fix

May 6, 2025

Thailand Sourcing Editorial Team

6 min to read

The global sourcing landscape has shifted — permanently.

The days of low-cost, low-risk Chinese manufacturing are over. Trade wars, rising tariffs, and geopolitical tensions have created an environment where staying with Chinese factories is no longer sustainable for forward-thinking companies. At Thailand Sourcing Services (TSS), we help businesses pivot with confidence — not just to avoid tariffs, but to build smarter, more secure, and more resilient global supply chains.

Tariff Shock: The High Cost of Staying the Course

President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which went into effect earlier this year, sent shockwaves through global trade. Tariffs now average 36% on Thai goods — and even higher for goods coming out of Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. China remains squarely in the crosshairs. And while the 90-day suspension of tariff escalation offers brief relief, experts warn that “this pause risks fostering complacency” — a warning echoed by economist Wannaphong Durongkaveroj of the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.

Companies continuing to rely on Chinese factories — or Chinese-owned factories operating out of Southeast Asia — face more than just higher costs. They also risk transshipment penalties, origin audits, and reputational damage. Transshipment — where goods are deceptively routed through third countries — is now a major enforcement priority for U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The implication is clear: If you’re not sourcing transparently, you’re gambling with your business.

Thailand’s Opportunity — and Its Responsibility

Thailand stands at a crossroads. It’s well positioned to be the China+1 solution of choice for global buyers — thanks to decades of manufacturing experience, favorable logistics, and relatively stable governance. But to truly replace China in global supply chains, Thailand must address several key vulnerabilities. As Durongkaveroj outlines in his May 2025 commentary, Thailand’s current response — simply increasing imports from the U.S. — is insufficient. This “band-aid” solution overlooks deeper structural issues in the Thai trade regime, such as:

  • Non-tariff barriers, including burdensome licensing requirements and import restrictions.

  • Customs irregularities, including incentive structures that encourage over-enforcement or delay.

  • Chinese “ghost factories” operating in Thailand under Thai names to exploit tariff loopholes.

Thailand must do more than reduce duties or sign new free trade agreements. It needs a coherent, long-term trade strategy that prioritizes transparency, compliance, and local manufacturing independence — not just short-term political optics.

Why Buyers Can’t Afford to Wait

At Thailand Sourcing Services, we’ve spent years helping businesses avoid these traps. Our model is simple: we connect companies directly with pre-vetted Thai manufacturers — not Chinese subsidiaries operating under a different flag. With offices in Bangkok and boots on the ground in key industrial zones, we conduct factory audits, verify ownership structures, and ensure that every link in your supply chain is compliant with U.S. and Thai trade regulations.

Here’s what that means for you:

  • Peace of mind: No risk of unintentional transshipment or origin fraud.

  • Speed and reliability: Local presence means faster problem-solving and communication.

  • Tariff efficiency: True Thai origin means lower risk and better cost control.

  • Future-proofing: As U.S.-China tensions escalate, you’ll be positioned to adapt — not scramble.

We’ve seen too many businesses burned by brokers offering "Thailand sourcing" that’s really just Chinese manufacturing in disguise. At TSS, we don’t just avoid that risk — we build around it.

What Thailand Must Fix to Fully Realize Its Advantage

Thailand is already a powerhouse in industries like automotive, electronics, and ceramics. But to truly step into the void left by China, the government must take meaningful action. Based on current research and our field experience, here’s what needs to happen:

  1. Crack down on Chinese front companies that set up Thai entities but operate under Chinese ownership and control.

  2. Streamline customs procedures to reduce the time and friction it takes to move goods across borders.

  3. Invest in SME empowerment to make it easier for small and mid-sized manufacturers to compete globally.

  4. Remove outdated regulatory hurdles that make importing raw materials or exporting finished goods unnecessarily complex.

  5. Enhance enforcement of origin rules to protect compliant businesses and deter circumvention schemes.



Why Choose TSS: The Difference Is in the Details

We’re not a trading company. We’re your sourcing partner. That means:

  • Transparent cost structures no hidden markups

  • Real-time factory reporting and quality assurance

  • Compliance support for U.S. customs documentation and country-of-origin regulations

  • Post-shipment follow-through

Conclusion: Long-Term Thinking Wins

The trade war isn’t a blip — it’s a paradigm shift. Businesses that pivot now will thrive in the new normal. Those that wait may find themselves locked into supply chains that are more expensive, less secure, and more exposed to regulatory crackdowns. Thailand offers a clear path forward — but only if you walk it with the right partner. Thailand Sourcing Services is ready to help you move beyond the instability of Chinese manufacturing and into a future of smart, transparent, and sustainable sourcing. We’re already helping American and European companies build resilient supply chains they can trust — and we’d love to help you do the same.


Let’s start the conversation!

Contact us a www.thailand-sourcing.com or email erik@thailand-sourcing.com to schedule afree strategy call.

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Are you interested in what we offer? Then fill out the RFQ and we will get back to you!

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